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CSF Bălți vs Milsami Orhei — Super Liga 2026

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
3/17/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 2Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

CSF Bălți34%
×Draw26%
Milsami Orhei39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
1.24
Milsami Orhei
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 98 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
1.21
Milsami Orhei
1.46

allows per match

CSF Bălți
1.25
Milsami Orhei
1.27

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Milsami Orhei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
61%
CSF Bălți or Milsami Orhei
74%
Draw or Milsami Orhei
66%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
15%
Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
71%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
35%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
13%
Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
74%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
39%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
47%
Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 1.21 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Milsami Orhei attack 1.46 + CSF Bălți defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
34%
level
26%
Milsami Orhei scores more
39%

Milsami Orhei at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSF Bălți vs Milsami Orhei

CSF Bălți beat Milsami Orhei 1-0 in Super Liga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Bălţi.