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CSF Bălți vs Dacia-Buiucani — Cupa 2020

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălțiadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
3/2/2024CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CSF Bălți49%
×Draw21%
Dacia-Buiucani31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
2.17
Dacia-Buiucani
1.70

CSF Bălți creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
3.00
Dacia-Buiucani
2.50

allows per match

CSF Bălți
0.90
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Dacia-Buiucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
69%
CSF Bălți or Dacia-Buiucani
79%
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
51%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
28%
Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
89%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
64%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
36%
Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
82%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
51%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
61%
Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Dacia-Buiucani away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 3.00 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dacia-Buiucani attack 2.50 + CSF Bălți defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
49%
level
21%
Dacia-Buiucani scores more
31%

CSF Bălți at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSF Bălți vs Dacia-Buiucani

CSF Bălți beat Dacia-Buiucani 2-1 in Cupa on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Bălţi.