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CS Uruguay vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
CANC
20:00
Limon FC
Limon FC
9/26/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CS Uruguay35%
×Draw25%
Limon FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.35
Limon FC
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 16 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
60%
CS Uruguay or Limon FC
75%
Draw or Limon FC
65%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
16%
Limon FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
74%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
39%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
15%
Limon FC 1+ goals
77%
Limon FC 2+ goals
42%
Limon FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
47%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Limon FC attack 1.69 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
35%
level
25%
Limon FC scores more
40%

Limon FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CS Uruguay face Limon FC (Liga de Ascenso)

Liga de Ascenso returns with CS Uruguay hosting Limon FC. Match starts September 26, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.