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CS Uruguay vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
3/22/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 15Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

CS Uruguay48%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.59
Aserri FC
1.14

CS Uruguay creates 39% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 106 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
73%
CS Uruguay or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
52%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
25%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
80%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
47%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
21%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
68%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
32%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
64%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
48%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
27%

CS Uruguay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Uruguay vs Aserri FC

CS Uruguay beat Aserri FC 3-2 in Liga de Ascenso on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.