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CS Universitatea Craiova vs Viitorul Constanta — Liga I 2018

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
5/18/2019Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova47%
×Draw27%
Viitorul Constanta26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.38
Viitorul Constanta
0.94

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 47% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Viitorul Constanta
1.07

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Viitorul Constanta
1.14

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Viitorul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
74%
CS Universitatea Craiova or Viitorul Constanta
73%
Draw or Viitorul Constanta
53%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
23%
Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
75%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
40%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
16%
Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
61%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
24%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
65%
Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%
level
27%
Viitorul Constanta scores more
26%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CS Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Viitorul Constanta

Viitorul Constanta beat CS Universitatea Craiova 2-1 in Liga I on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.