CS Sfaxien 4–0 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

CS Sfaxien

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

A. Marzouki 71', 26'

O. Amdouni 40'

H. Ben Ali 5'

8/25/2017

League #202 · Round 3Stade Taïeb Mhiri (Sfax (Safāqis))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

CS Sfaxien68%

×Draw22%

JS Kairouanaise10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS SfaxienExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.49

CS Sfaxien

1.73

JS Kairouanaise

0.49

CS Sfaxien creates 253% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 64 away

1.78

creates per match

0.58

0.40

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CS Sfaxien

1.78

JS Kairouanaise

0.58

allows per match

CS Sfaxien

0.40

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Sfaxien+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Sfaxien ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CS Sfaxien or draw

90%

CS Sfaxien or JS Kairouanaise

78%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

32%

Winning margin

CS Sfaxien wins by 2+

40%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

CS Sfaxien 1+ goals

82%

CS Sfaxien 2+ goals

52%

CS Sfaxien 3+ goals

25%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

39%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

9%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

CS Sfaxien (draw refunded)

87%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.40 · 50 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Sfaxien attack 1.78 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + CS Sfaxien defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

CS Sfaxien scores more

68%

level

22%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

10%

CS Sfaxien at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "CS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

26'

40'

71'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff