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Crystal Palace vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
West Ham
West Ham
E. Eze 66' (pen)
J. Schlupp 30'
W. Zaha 20'
J. Ayew 15'
N. Aguerd 72'
M. Antonio 35'
T. Souček 9'
4/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Crystal Palace51%
×Draw23%
West Ham26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.78
West Ham
1.20

Crystal Palace creates 48% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.83
West Ham
1.12

allows per match

Crystal Palace
1.28
West Ham
1.73

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.62scores less
West Ham-0.05on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
74%
Crystal Palace or West Ham
77%
Draw or West Ham
49%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
28%
West Ham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
83%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
53%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
26%
West Ham 1+ goals
70%
West Ham 2+ goals
34%
West Ham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
66%
West Ham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.73 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.83 + West Ham defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.78

West Ham attack 1.12 + Crystal Palace defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
51%
level
23%
West Ham scores more
26%

Crystal Palace at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
T. SoučekWest HamWest Ham · M
7.9

Match Events

9'
T. Souček
15'
Jordan Ayew
15'
J. Ayew↳ M. Olise
19'
A. Ogbonna← K. Zouma
20'
W. Zaha
24'
Tomáš Souček
30'
J. Schlupp
35'
M. Antonio↳ T. Souček
46'
S. Benrahma← Pablo Fornals
46'
A. Cresswell← Emerson
58'
Vladimír Coufal
66'
E. EzePenalty
69'
D. Ings← Lucas Paquetá
72'
N. Aguerd
84'
O. Édouard← W. Zaha
89'
M. Cornet← M. Antonio
90+5'
L. Milivojević← C. Doucouré

Possession

60%Crystal

Shots

16Crystal

Pass accuracy

54%Crystal

Statistics

CrystalWest
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots8
2.13Expected Goals (xG)1.86
8Corners5
9Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots8
6On Target4
4Off Target3
6Blocked1
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
498Total Passes334
392Accurate Passes219
79%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Premier League: Crystal Palace 4–3 West Ham

Crystal Palace beat West Ham 4-3 in Premier League on April 29, 2023.

Goals: T. Souček (9'), J. Ayew (15'), W. Zaha (20'), J. Schlupp (30'), M. Antonio (35'), E. Eze (66' pen), N. Aguerd (72').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.