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Crystal Palace vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
West Ham
West Ham
M. Olise 90'
O. Édouard 83'
M. Lanzini 45+5' (pen), 25'
M. Antonio 22'
1/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Crystal Palace52%
×Draw23%
West Ham25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.77
West Ham
1.15

Crystal Palace creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.68
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Crystal Palace
1.24
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.59scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
75%
Crystal Palace or West Ham
77%
Draw or West Ham
48%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
29%
West Ham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
83%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
53%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
26%
West Ham 1+ goals
68%
West Ham 2+ goals
32%
West Ham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
68%
West Ham (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.68 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

West Ham attack 1.06 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
52%
level
23%
West Ham scores more
25%

Crystal Palace at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. OliseCrystal PalaceCrystal Palace · M
8.3

Match Events

22'
M. Antonio↳ S. Benrahma
25'
M. Lanzini↳ D. Rice
38'
Ben Johnson
45+3'
Jarrod BowenPenalty awarded
45+5'
M. LanziniPenalty
46'
A. Masuaku← B. Johnson
60'
J. Mateta← L. Milivojević
68'
M. Olise← C. Benteke
71'
N. Vlašić← S. Benrahma
75'
J. Riedewald← W. Hughes
78'
Arthur Masuaku
83'
O. Édouard↳ M. Olise
89'
M. Noble← M. Lanzini
90'
M. Olise

Possession

63%Crystal

Shots

22Crystal

Pass accuracy

54%Crystal

Statistics

CrystalWest
Overview
63%Possession37%
22Total Shots10
9Corners1
6Fouls16
Shots
22Total Shots10
6On Target5
11Off Target4
5Blocked1
16Inside Box9
6Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
558Total Passes339
487Accurate Passes246
87%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Premier League: Crystal Palace 2–3 West Ham

West Ham beat Crystal Palace 3-2 in Premier League on January 1, 2022.

Goals: M. Antonio (22'), M. Lanzini (25', 45+5' pen), O. Édouard (83'), M. Olise (90').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.