Crystal Palace 2–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

West Ham

W. Zaha 90+7'

L. Milivojević 50' (pen)

A. Ayew 43'

Javier Hernández 31'

10/28/2017

Premier League · Round 10Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Crystal Palace50%

×Draw24%

West Ham26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.17

Crystal Palace

1.73

West Ham

1.17

Crystal Palace creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.61

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

West Ham

1.85

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

74%

Crystal Palace or West Ham

76%

Draw or West Ham

50%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

27%

West Ham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

82%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

52%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

25%

West Ham 1+ goals

69%

West Ham 2+ goals

33%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

66%

West Ham (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

West Ham attack 1.06 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

50%

level

24%

West Ham scores more

26%

Crystal Palace at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Y. Cabaye

Crystal Palace · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

T. Fosu-Mensah← P. van Aanholt

31'

Javier Hernández↳ A. Cresswell

37'

Pablo Zabaleta

43'

A. Ayew

46'

A. Masuaku← A. Cresswell

50'

L. MilivojevićPenalty

60'

B. Sako← J. Ward

62'

M. Antonio← P. Zabaleta

76'

D. Rice← José Fonte

84'

Scott Dann

85'

Arthur Masuaku

90+7'

W. Zaha↳ R. Loftus-Cheek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalWest

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots6

11Corners2

18Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots6

9On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked1

16Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

410Total Passes331

316Accurate Passes238

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1