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Crystal Palace vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
Y. Cabaye 25' (pen)
D. Payet 90+4'
M. Lanzini 88'
C. Jenkinson 22'
10/17/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Crystal Palace52%
×Draw23%
West Ham25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.77
West Ham
1.15

Crystal Palace creates 54% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.68
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Crystal Palace
1.24
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.59scores less
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
75%
Crystal Palace or West Ham
77%
Draw or West Ham
48%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
29%
West Ham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
83%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
53%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
26%
West Ham 1+ goals
68%
West Ham 2+ goals
32%
West Ham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
68%
West Ham (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.68 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

West Ham attack 1.06 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
52%
level
23%
West Ham scores more
25%

Crystal Palace at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
M. LanziniWest HamWest Ham · M
9.5

Match Events

20'
James Tomkins
22'
C. Jenkinson↳ V. Moses
25'
Y. CabayePenalty
32'
Dwight Gayle
40'
Dimitri Payet
44'
Dwight Gayle
44'
Dwight Gayle
46'
B. Sako← W. Zaha
62'
A. Carroll← M. Noble
63'
M. Jedinak← J. McArthur
69'
Mile Jedinak
74'
M. Zárate← V. Moses
77'
J. Ledley← Y. Cabaye
85'
N. Jelavić← D. Sakho
88'
M. Lanzini↳ N. Jelavić
90'
Nikica Jelavić
90+4'
D. Payet↳ M. Lanzini

Possession

38%Crystal

Shots

6Crystal

Pass accuracy

46%Crystal

Statistics

CrystalWest
Overview
38%Possession62%
6Total Shots24
1Corners9
0Fouls0
Shots
6Total Shots24
1On Target4
3Off Target12
2Blocked8
5Inside Box12
1Outside Box12
Passing
38%Possession62%
326Total Passes516
236Accurate Passes437
72%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
0Fouls0
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Premier League: Crystal Palace 1–3 West Ham

West Ham beat Crystal Palace 3-1 in Premier League on October 17, 2015.

Goals: C. Jenkinson (22'), Y. Cabaye (25' pen), M. Lanzini (88'), D. Payet (90+4').

West Ham controlled possession (62%) and registered 24 shots to 6.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.