Crystal Palace 0–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

J. Defoe 80'

11/23/2015

Premier League · Round 13Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Crystal Palace49%

×Draw25%

Sunderland26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.12

Crystal Palace

1.64

Sunderland

1.12

Crystal Palace creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

0.97

1.27

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Sunderland

0.97

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Sunderland

1.66

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Sunderland-0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

74%

Crystal Palace or Sunderland

75%

Draw or Sunderland

51%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

26%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

49%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Sunderland 1+ goals

67%

Sunderland 2+ goals

31%

Sunderland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

65%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Sunderland defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sunderland attack 0.97 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

49%

level

25%

Sunderland scores more

26%

Crystal Palace at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Coates

Sunderland · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

53'

57'

59'

60'

D. Watmore← S. Larsson

66'

Scott Dann

67'

Yann M'Vila

69'

P. Bamford← B. Sako

76'

M. Chamakh← C. Wickham

80'

J. Defoe↳ B. Jones

86'

D. Graham← J. Defoe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalSunderland

Overview

66%Possession34%

19Total Shots12

11Corners2

0Fouls0

Shots

19Total Shots12

7On Target4

8Off Target6

4Blocked2

6Inside Box9

13Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

452Total Passes244

371Accurate Passes147

82%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3