Crystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Newcastle

Joelinton 90'

C. Wilson 88'

11/27/2020

Premier League · Round 10Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Crystal Palace41%

×Draw26%

Newcastle33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Crystal Palace

1.41

Newcastle

1.25

Crystal Palace creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Newcastle

1.20

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

67%

Crystal Palace or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

59%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

19%

Newcastle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

76%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Newcastle 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

55%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

41%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

33%

Crystal Palace at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Joelinton

Newcastle · F

8.6

Match Events

17'

Federico Fernández

60'

Sean Longstaff

66'

C. Benteke← J. Ayew

67'

J. Riedewald← A. Townsend

67'

M. Ritchie← M. Almirón

77'

Scott Dann

82'

M. Batshuayi← J. McArthur

88'

90'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalNewcastle

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots14

7Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target7

8Off Target5

1Blocked2

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

503Total Passes375

413Accurate Passes276

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 2-0 in Premier League on November 27, 2020.

Goals: C. Wilson (88'), Joelinton (90').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle