Crystal Palace 1–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Newcastle

P. van Aanholt 44'

2/22/2020

Premier League · Round 27Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Crystal Palace41%

×Draw26%

Newcastle33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Crystal Palace

1.42

Newcastle

1.23

Crystal Palace creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

1.61

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Newcastle

1.20

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Newcastle

1.23

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

67%

Crystal Palace or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

59%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

20%

Newcastle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

76%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Newcastle 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle 2+ goals

35%

Newcastle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

56%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.23 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Newcastle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Newcastle attack 1.20 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

41%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

33%

Crystal Palace at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. van Aanholt

Crystal Palace · D

8.8

Match Events

14'

21'

32'

40'

44'

71'

71'

74'

83'

88'

89'

89'

J. Riedewald← C. Kouyaté

90'

Sean Longstaff

90'

Valentino Lazaro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalNewcastle

Overview

44%Possession56%

18Total Shots8

7Corners5

15Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots8

9On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked3

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

356Total Passes447

263Accurate Passes344

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3