Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Newcastle

J. McArthur 90+3', 14'

Y. Bolasie 47', 17'

W. Zaha 41'

P. Cissé 10'

11/28/2015

Premier League · Round 14Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Crystal Palace41%

×Draw26%

Newcastle33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Crystal Palace

1.41

Newcastle

1.25

Crystal Palace creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Newcastle

1.24

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Newcastle

1.20

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

67%

Crystal Palace or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

59%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

19%

Newcastle wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

76%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Newcastle 1+ goals

71%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

55%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Newcastle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Newcastle attack 1.24 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

41%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

33%

Crystal Palace at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Bolasie

Crystal Palace · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

P. Cissé↳ D. Janmaat

14'

J. McArthur↳ C. Wickham

17'

Y. Bolasie

38'

Wilfried Zaha

41'

W. Zaha↳ C. Wickham

46'

J. Lascelles← Ayoze Pérez

47'

Y. Bolasie↳ D. Delaney

67'

M. Jedinak← W. Zaha

70'

S. de Jong← J. Colback

70'

Y. Gouffran← G. Wijnaldum

75'

Chung-Yong Lee← Y. Cabaye

81'

Chancel Mbemba

86'

P. Bamford← C. Wickham

90+3'

J. McArthur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalNewcastle

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots7

7Corners5

0Fouls0

Shots

19Total Shots7

8On Target2

6Off Target1

5Blocked4

9Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

449Total Passes394

375Accurate Passes291

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Premier League: Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle

Crystal Palace beat Newcastle 5-1 in Premier League on November 28, 2015.

Goals: P. Cissé (10'), J. McArthur (14', 90+3'), Y. Bolasie (17', 47'), W. Zaha (41').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Crystal Palace 5–1 Newcastle