Crystal Palace 1–3 Manchester United

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United

J. Ward 66'

A. Young 83'

R. Lukaku 52', 33'

2/27/2019

Premier League · Round 28Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Crystal Palace43%

×Draw25%

Manchester United32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.31

Crystal Palace

1.56

Manchester United

1.31

Crystal Palace creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

1.61

creates per match

1.36

1.27

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Manchester United

1.52

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

68%

Crystal Palace or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

57%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

22%

Manchester United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

79%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

46%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

21%

Manchester United 1+ goals

73%

Manchester United 2+ goals

38%

Manchester United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

57%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

43%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

32%

Crystal Palace at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Lukaku

Manchester United · F

7.8

Match Events

33'

R. Lukaku↳ L. Shaw

41'

Martin Kelly

52'

R. Lukaku↳ V. Lindelöf

61'

M. Meyer← J. McArthur

66'

J. Ward↳ J. Schlupp

69'

Alexis Sánchez

77'

E. Bailly← Diogo Dalot

77'

M. Rashford← A. Sánchez

78'

C. Benteke← M. Batshuayi

81'

Luke Shaw

83'

C. Kouyaté← P. van Aanholt

83'

A. Young↳ P. Pogba

90'

Wilfried Zaha

90'

Romelu Lukaku

90'

J. Garner← Fred

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalManchester

Overview

45%Possession55%

17Total Shots13

5Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots13

2On Target4

11Off Target5

4Blocked4

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

374Total Passes468

299Accurate Passes378

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0