Crystal Palace 0–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

E. Haaland 78' (pen)

3/11/2023

Premier League · Round 27Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Crystal Palace37%

×Draw25%

Manchester City39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.49

Crystal Palace

1.44

Manchester City

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

1.69

creates per match

1.76

1.22

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.69

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.22

Manchester City

1.18

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.56scores less

Manchester City-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

61%

Crystal Palace or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

63%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

17%

Manchester City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

76%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

42%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

18%

Manchester City 1+ goals

77%

Manchester City 2+ goals

44%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

49%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.22 · 31 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.69 + Manchester City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Crystal Palace defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

37%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

39%

Manchester City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Rodri

Manchester City · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

Luka Milivojević

58'

J. Álvarez← P. Foden

59'

Rúben Dias

61'

N. Ahamada← L. Milivojević

65'

Nathan Aké

71'

J. Ward← N. Clyne

78'

E. HaalandPenalty

79'

K. De Bruyne← Bernardo Silva

80'

80'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalManchester

Overview

32%Possession68%

4Total Shots14

0.21Expected Goals (xG)2.08

2Corners6

11Fouls17

Shots

4Total Shots14

0On Target4

0Off Target5

4Blocked5

3Inside Box8

1Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

290Total Passes616

218Accurate Passes538

75%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Manchester City beat Crystal Palace 1-0 in Premier League on March 11, 2023.

Goals: E. Haaland (78' pen).

Manchester City controlled possession (68%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City