Crystal Palace 1–2 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

C. Wickham 66'

Y. Touré 83', 39'

11/19/2016

Premier League · Round 12Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Crystal Palace35%

×Draw25%

Manchester City41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.54

Crystal Palace

1.40

Manchester City

1.54

Manchester City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.84

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.59

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Manchester City

1.21

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.48scores less

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

59%

Crystal Palace or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

65%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

16%

Manchester City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

41%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

17%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

46%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.59 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

35%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

41%

Manchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

Y. Touré

Manchester City · M

8.3

Match Events

37'

P. Zabaleta← V. Kompany

39'

Y. Touré↳ Nolito

46'

C. Wickham← A. Townsend

56'

62'

66'

67'

78'

81'

Chung-Yong Lee← C. Benteke

83'

Y. Touré↳ K. De Bruyne

86'

B. Sako← M. Kelly

86'

Fernando← S. Agüero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalManchester

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots10

2Corners7

12Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

276Total Passes447

164Accurate Passes337

59%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1