Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool

J. Ledley 48'

C. Benteke 90+6' (pen)

Roberto Firmino 72'

3/6/2016

Premier League · Round 29Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Crystal Palace38%

×Draw25%

Liverpool37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.44

Crystal Palace

1.45

Liverpool

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 33 away

1.59

creates per match

1.62

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.59

Liverpool

1.62

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Liverpool

1.31

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.48scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

63%

Crystal Palace or Liverpool

75%

Draw or Liverpool

62%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

18%

Liverpool wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

77%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

42%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

18%

Liverpool 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool 2+ goals

42%

Liverpool 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

50%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.59 + Liverpool defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Liverpool attack 1.62 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

38%

level

25%

Liverpool scores more

37%

Crystal Palace at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Benteke

Liverpool · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

11'

40'

48'

61'

Philippe Coutinho← J. Flanagan

62'

62'

70'

72'

80'

82'

D. Gayle← E. Adebayor

82'

B. Sako← J. Ledley

86'

Alberto Moreno

88'

K. Touré← Roberto Firmino

90+6'

C. BentekePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalLiverpool

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots19

6Corners6

0Fouls0

Shots

14Total Shots19

4On Target5

6Off Target6

4Blocked8

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box10

Passing

38%Possession62%

342Total Passes564

230Accurate Passes467

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2