Crystal Palace 4–1 Leeds: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Leeds

J. Ayew 70'

Hélder Costa 42' (OG)

E. Eze 22'

S. Dann 12'

P. Bamford 27'

11/7/2020

Premier League · Round 8Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Crystal Palace50%

×Draw24%

Leeds26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Crystal Palace

1.75

Leeds

1.21

Crystal Palace creates 45% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 25 away

1.68

creates per match

1.17

1.24

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.68

Leeds

1.17

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Leeds

1.82

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.59scores less

Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

74%

Crystal Palace or Leeds

76%

Draw or Leeds

50%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

27%

Leeds wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

83%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

52%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

25%

Leeds 1+ goals

70%

Leeds 2+ goals

34%

Leeds 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

65%

Leeds (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.68 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Leeds attack 1.17 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

50%

level

24%

Leeds scores more

26%

Crystal Palace at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Eze

Crystal Palace · M

8.9

Match Events

12'

S. Dann↳ E. Eze

18'

Patrick BamfordGoal cancelled

22'

E. Eze

27'

P. Bamford↳ M. Klich

42'

Hélder CostaOwn goal

46'

Raphinha← Hélder Costa

49'

Liam Cooper

70'

J. Ayew↳ W. Zaha

71'

J. Schlupp← A. Townsend

71'

T. Roberts← P. Struijk

77'

Mateusz Klich

77'

J. McCarthy← J. Riedewald

85'

C. Benteke← J. Ayew

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalLeeds

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots9

3Corners6

9Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots9

6On Target3

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

332Total Passes599

243Accurate Passes493

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Premier League: Crystal Palace 4–1 Leeds

Crystal Palace beat Leeds 4-1 in Premier League on November 7, 2020.

Goals: S. Dann (12'), E. Eze (22'), P. Bamford (27'), Hélder Costa (42' o.g.), J. Ayew (70').

Leeds controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Crystal Palace 4–1 Leeds