Crystal Palace 2–0 Fulham: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

J. Schlupp 87'

L. Milivojević 25' (pen)

2/2/2019

Premier League · Round 25Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Crystal Palace47%

×Draw25%

Fulham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.19

Crystal Palace

1.61

Fulham

1.19

Crystal Palace creates 35% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

1.61

creates per match

1.11

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Fulham

1.11

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Fulham

1.61

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Fulham-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

72%

Crystal Palace or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

53%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

24%

Fulham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

80%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

48%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

22%

Fulham 1+ goals

70%

Fulham 2+ goals

33%

Fulham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

63%

Fulham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Fulham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fulham attack 1.11 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

47%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

28%

Crystal Palace at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Milivojević

Crystal Palace · M

7.8

Match Events

6'

Jordan Ayew

25'

L. MilivojevićPenalty

27'

45'

46'

59'

62'

T. Fosu-Mensah← C. Christie

72'

M. Meyer← C. Benteke

76'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

82'

M. Batshuayi← J. Ayew

87'

J. Schlupp

88'

F. Ayité← R. Babel

90+1'

B. Sako← J. Schlupp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalFulham

Overview

37%Possession63%

17Total Shots8

11Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots8

6On Target0

5Off Target7

6Blocked1

13Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

346Total Passes608

263Accurate Passes521

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1