Crystal Palace 0–0 Everton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton

4/22/2023

Premier League · Round 32Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Crystal Palace50%

×Draw24%

Everton26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.17

Crystal Palace

1.73

Everton

1.17

Crystal Palace creates 48% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.77

creates per match

1.09

1.24

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.77

Everton

1.09

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Everton

1.70

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.61scores less

Everton-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

74%

Crystal Palace or Everton

76%

Draw or Everton

50%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

27%

Everton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

82%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

52%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

25%

Everton 1+ goals

69%

Everton 2+ goals

33%

Everton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

66%

Everton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Everton away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.77 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Everton attack 1.09 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

50%

level

24%

Everton scores more

26%

Crystal Palace at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Johnstone

Crystal Palace · G

8.2

Match Events

27'

Tyrick Mitchell

37'

Mason Holgate

63'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

71'

J. Mateta← O. Édouard

71'

W. Hughes← J. Schlupp

78'

L. Milivojević← C. Doucouré

80'

Mason Holgate

80'

Mason Holgate

82'

B. Godfrey← D. Gray

90+1'

N. Maupay← D. Calvert-Lewin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalEverton

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots10

0.51Expected Goals (xG)0.39

8Corners1

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

2On Target5

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

414Total Passes318

309Accurate Passes214

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3