Crystal Palace 3–1 Everton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Everton

C. Gallagher 90+3', 41'

J. Tomkins 62'

S. Rondón 70'

12/12/2021

Premier League · Round 16Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Crystal Palace48%

×Draw24%

Everton28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Crystal Palace

1.67

Everton

1.21

Crystal Palace creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.61

creates per match

1.14

1.27

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Everton

1.14

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Everton

1.72

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Everton-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

72%

Crystal Palace or Everton

76%

Draw or Everton

52%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

25%

Everton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

50%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Everton 1+ goals

70%

Everton 2+ goals

34%

Everton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

63%

Everton (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Everton away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.72 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Everton defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Everton attack 1.14 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

48%

level

24%

Everton scores more

28%

Crystal Palace at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Gallagher

Crystal Palace · M

9.7

Match Events

41'

C. Gallagher↳ J. Ayew

58'

S. Rondón← Richarlison

58'

A. Gordon← F. Delph

62'

J. Tomkins↳ W. Hughes

70'

S. Rondón

72'

Abdoulaye Doucouré

73'

J. Schlupp← W. Hughes

74'

C. Benteke← O. Édouard

76'

Demarai Gray

90+1'

N. Clyne← T. Mitchell

90+3'

C. Gallagher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalEverton

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots12

8Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots12

6On Target6

5Off Target1

6Blocked5

12Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

487Total Passes306

406Accurate Passes215

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Premier League: Crystal Palace 3–1 Everton

Crystal Palace beat Everton 3-1 in Premier League on December 12, 2021.

Goals: C. Gallagher (41', 90+3'), J. Tomkins (62'), S. Rondón (70').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Crystal Palace 3–1 Everton