Crystal Palace 1–4 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Chelsea

C. Benteke 63'

C. Pulisic 78', 10'

K. Zouma 30'

K. Havertz 8'

4/10/2021

Premier League · Round 31Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Crystal Palace42%

×Draw25%

Chelsea33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.36

Crystal Palace

1.56

Chelsea

1.36

Crystal Palace creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.64

creates per match

1.49

1.24

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.64

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Chelsea

1.49

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.58scores less

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

67%

Crystal Palace or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

58%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

21%

Chelsea wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

79%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

46%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

21%

Chelsea 1+ goals

74%

Chelsea 2+ goals

39%

Chelsea 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

56%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.64 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

42%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

33%

Crystal Palace at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Pulisic

Chelsea · F

8.7

Match Events

8'

K. Havertz↳ C. Hudson-Odoi

10'

C. Pulisic↳ K. Havertz

29'

Cheikhou Kouyaté

30'

K. Zouma↳ M. Mount

59'

J. McCarthy← J. Riedewald

59'

J. Schlupp← E. Eze

61'

N. Kanté← Jorginho

63'

C. Benteke↳ J. Schlupp

76'

A. Townsend← J. Ayew

76'

R. James← C. Hudson-Odoi

78'

C. Pulisic

83'

H. Ziyech← M. Kovačić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalChelsea

Overview

35%Possession65%

1Total Shots23

0Corners8

7Fouls12

Shots

1Total Shots23

1On Target10

0Off Target6

0Blocked7

1Inside Box19

0Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

434Total Passes782

336Accurate Passes699

77%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Chelsea beat Crystal Palace 4-1 in Premier League on April 10, 2021.

Goals: K. Havertz (8'), C. Pulisic (10', 78'), K. Zouma (30'), C. Benteke (63').

Chelsea controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 1.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Chelsea