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Crystal Palace vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Chelsea
Chelsea
C. Benteke 72'
W. Zaha 34'
T. Abraham 71'
C. Pulisic 27'
O. Giroud 6'
7/7/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Crystal Palace42%
×Draw25%
Chelsea34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.56
Chelsea
1.38

Crystal Palace creates 13% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.68
Chelsea
1.51

allows per match

Crystal Palace
1.24
Chelsea
1.45

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.59scores less
Chelsea-0.12scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
66%
Crystal Palace or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
58%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
21%
Chelsea wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
79%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
46%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
21%
Chelsea 1+ goals
75%
Chelsea 2+ goals
40%
Chelsea 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
55%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.68 + Chelsea defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chelsea attack 1.51 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
42%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
34%

Crystal Palace at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
WillianChelseaChelsea · F
8.7

Match Events

6'
O. Giroud↳ Willian
8'
M. Sakho← G. Cahill
27'
C. Pulisic↳ Willian
34'
W. Zaha
35'
Luka Milivojević
65'
R. Loftus-Cheek← R. Barkley
65'
T. Abraham← O. Giroud
71'
T. Abraham↳ R. Loftus-Cheek
72'
C. Benteke↳ P. van Aanholt
80'
A. Townsend← J. Ayew
80'
J. McCarthy← J. McArthur
80'
Jorginho← B. Gilmour
89'
M. Meyer← L. Milivojević

Possession

42%Crystal

Shots

13Crystal

Pass accuracy

48%Crystal

Statistics

CrystalChelsea
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots14
7Corners9
11Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target6
4Off Target6
5Blocked2
9Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
381Total Passes538
296Accurate Passes451
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Premier League: Crystal Palace 2–3 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Crystal Palace 3-2 in Premier League on July 7, 2020.

Goals: O. Giroud (6'), C. Pulisic (27'), W. Zaha (34'), T. Abraham (71'), C. Benteke (72').

Chelsea controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.