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Crystal Palace vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Chelsea
Chelsea
W. Zaha 45'
Azpilicueta 11' (OG)
T. Bakayoko 18'
10/14/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Crystal Palace41%
×Draw25%
Chelsea34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.55
Chelsea
1.38

Crystal Palace creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.61
Chelsea
1.49

allows per match

Crystal Palace
1.27
Chelsea
1.49

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less
Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Chelsea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
66%
Crystal Palace or Chelsea
75%
Draw or Chelsea
59%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
21%
Chelsea wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
79%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
46%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
20%
Chelsea 1+ goals
75%
Chelsea 2+ goals
40%
Chelsea 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
55%
Chelsea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.55

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
41%
level
25%
Chelsea scores more
34%

Crystal Palace at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
FàbregasChelseaChelsea · M
9.1

Match Events

11'
AzpilicuetaOwn goal
18'
T. Bakayoko↳ Fàbregas
39'
D. Zappacosta← V. Moses
45'
W. Zaha↳ M. Sakho
57'
Pedro← M. Batshuayi
65'
C. Musonda← Willian
71'
Luka Milivojević
75'
J. Puncheon← J. Schlupp
83'
Scott Dann
85'
T. Fosu-Mensah← J. McArthur
86'
J. Riedewald← Y. Cabaye
87'
Tiemoué Bakayoko

Possession

43%Crystal

Shots

14Crystal

Pass accuracy

47%Crystal

Statistics

CrystalChelsea
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots15
5Corners8
7Fouls6
Shots
14Total Shots15
5On Target5
6Off Target6
3Blocked4
9Inside Box6
6Outside Box9
Passing
43%Possession57%
431Total Passes559
309Accurate Passes459
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides6

Premier League: Crystal Palace 2–1 Chelsea

Crystal Palace beat Chelsea 2-1 in Premier League on October 14, 2017.

Goals: Azpilicueta (11' o.g.), T. Bakayoko (18'), W. Zaha (45').

Chelsea controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.