Crystal Palace 1–1 Brighton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brighton

J. Tomkins 69'

S. March 63'

2/11/2023

Premier League · Round 23Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Crystal Palace44%

×Draw24%

Brighton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.38

Crystal Palace

1.66

Brighton

1.38

Crystal Palace creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

1.81

creates per match

1.51

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.81

Brighton

1.51

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Brighton

1.50

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.72scores less

Brighton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

68%

Crystal Palace or Brighton

76%

Draw or Brighton

56%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

23%

Brighton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

49%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Brighton 1+ goals

75%

Brighton 2+ goals

40%

Brighton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

58%

Brighton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.25 · 23 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.81 + Brighton defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Brighton attack 1.51 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

44%

level

24%

Brighton scores more

32%

Crystal Palace at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. March

Brighton · M

8.9

Match Events

6'

Alexis Mac Allister

27'

Will Hughes

34'

Pervis EstupiñánGoal cancelled

56'

A. Lokonga← W. Hughes

57'

E. Ferguson← D. Undav

59'

Albert Sambi Lokonga

63'

S. March↳ P. Estupiñán

69'

J. Tomkins

71'

E. Eze← J. Schlupp

71'

O. Édouard← J. Mateta

76'

T. Lamptey← A. Webster

82'

Cheick Doucouré

84'

N. Ahamada← M. Olise

88'

Tyrick Mitchell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalBrighton

Overview

26%Possession74%

6Total Shots17

1.08Expected Goals (xG)2.50

1Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots17

1On Target7

2Off Target5

3Blocked5

5Inside Box13

1Outside Box4

Passing

26%Possession74%

240Total Passes705

169Accurate Passes634

70%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Brighton

Crystal Palace and Brighton drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 11, 2023.

Goals: S. March (63'), J. Tomkins (69').

Brighton controlled possession (74%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Brighton