Crystal Palace 1–1 Brighton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brighton

W. Zaha 19' (pen)

A. Mac Allister 90'

10/18/2020

Premier League · Round 5Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Crystal Palace45%

×Draw24%

Brighton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.37

Crystal Palace

1.67

Brighton

1.37

Crystal Palace creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

1.50

1.24

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.68

Brighton

1.50

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Brighton

1.67

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.59scores less

Brighton-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

68%

Crystal Palace or Brighton

76%

Draw or Brighton

55%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

23%

Brighton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

50%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Brighton 1+ goals

75%

Brighton 2+ goals

40%

Brighton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

59%

Brighton (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.68 + Brighton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Brighton attack 1.50 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

45%

level

24%

Brighton scores more

32%

Crystal Palace at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Mac Allister

Brighton · M

7.5

Match Events

19'

Mathew Ryan

19'

W. ZahaPenalty

43'

Yves Bissouma

53'

Michy BatshuayiPenalty confirmed

63'

Tyrick Mitchell

76'

Vicente Guaita

78'

A. Connolly← L. Trossard

78'

A. Mac Allister← A. Lallana

82'

P. Groß← D. Burn

83'

L. Milivojević← M. Batshuayi

86'

James McArthur

88'

C. Benteke← J. Schlupp

90'

Lewis Dunk

90'

A. Mac Allister↳ A. Connolly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalBrighton

Overview

34%Possession66%

1Total Shots20

2Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

1Total Shots20

1On Target3

0Off Target9

0Blocked8

1Inside Box12

0Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

280Total Passes544

193Accurate Passes449

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2