Crystal Palace 3–2 Brighton: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Brighton

W. Zaha 24', 5'

J. Tomkins 14'

J. Izquierdo 34'

G. Murray 18'

4/14/2018

Premier League · Round 34Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Crystal Palace43%

×Draw24%

Brighton34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.43

Crystal Palace

1.64

Brighton

1.43

Crystal Palace creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

1.61

creates per match

1.58

1.27

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Brighton

1.58

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Brighton

1.66

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Brighton-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

66%

Crystal Palace or Brighton

76%

Draw or Brighton

57%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

22%

Brighton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

81%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

49%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

23%

Brighton 1+ goals

76%

Brighton 2+ goals

42%

Brighton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

56%

Brighton (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Brighton defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Brighton attack 1.58 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

43%

level

24%

Brighton scores more

34%

Crystal Palace at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

W. Zaha

Crystal Palace · F

9.1

Match Events

5'

11'

14'

16'

18'

24'

W. Zaha↳ L. Milivojević

34'

J. Izquierdo↳ J. Locadia

46'

A. Knockaert← J. Locadia

71'

C. Benteke← Y. Cabaye

71'

L. Ulloa← P. Groß

79'

Wilfried Zaha

80'

J. Riedewald← R. Loftus-Cheek

86'

S. March← G. Bong

89'

Wayne Hennessey

90'

Beram Kayal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalBrighton

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots12

5Corners6

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots12

8On Target3

2Off Target6

5Blocked3

7Inside Box10

8Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

367Total Passes347

282Accurate Passes249

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Brighton

Crystal Palace beat Brighton 3-2 in Premier League on April 14, 2018.

Goals: W. Zaha (5', 24'), J. Tomkins (14'), G. Murray (18'), J. Izquierdo (34').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Brighton