Crystal Palace 2–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bournemouth

E. Eze 58', 39'

5/13/2023

Premier League · Round 36Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Crystal Palace49%

×Draw23%

Bournemouth28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.35

Crystal Palace

1.83

Bournemouth

1.35

Crystal Palace creates 36% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.79

creates per match

1.53

1.17

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.79

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.17

Bournemouth

1.88

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.57scores less

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

72%

Crystal Palace or Bournemouth

77%

Draw or Bournemouth

51%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

27%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

84%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

54%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

28%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

74%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

39%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

63%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 27 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.79 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Crystal Palace defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

49%

level

23%

Bournemouth scores more

28%

Crystal Palace at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Eze

Crystal Palace · M

8.7

Match Events

39'

E. Eze↳ J. Ayew

51'

O. Édouard← W. Zaha

58'

E. Eze↳ M. Olise

60'

A. Smith← M. Viña

60'

D. Brooks← P. Billing

60'

K. Moore← R. Christie

73'

J. Anthony← D. Ouattara

77'

J. Riedewald← W. Hughes

81'

J. McArthur← C. Doucouré

81'

L. Cook← J. Rothwell

90+4'

David Brooks

90+2'

Jefferson Lerma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalBournemouth

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots5

1.55Expected Goals (xG)0.31

11Corners2

5Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots5

5On Target0

7Off Target1

5Blocked4

12Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

604Total Passes410

517Accurate Passes330

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth

Crystal Palace beat Bournemouth 2-0 in Premier League on May 13, 2023.

Goals: E. Eze (39', 58').

Crystal Palace controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth