Crystal Palace 2–2 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Bournemouth

S. Dann 44'

L. Milivojević 41' (pen)

J. Defoe 45+3', 10'

12/9/2017

Premier League · Round 16Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Crystal Palace46%

×Draw23%

Bournemouth31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.39

Crystal Palace

1.73

Bournemouth

1.39

Crystal Palace creates 24% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 29 away

1.59

creates per match

1.53

1.25

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.59

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Bournemouth

1.88

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.48scores less

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

69%

Crystal Palace or Bournemouth

77%

Draw or Bournemouth

54%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

24%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

82%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

52%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

25%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

75%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

40%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

59%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.59 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

46%

level

23%

Bournemouth scores more

31%

Crystal Palace at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Defoe

Bournemouth · F

8.4

Match Events

10'

J. Defoe↳ A. Surman

25'

S. Dann← M. Sakho

30'

James Tomkins

34'

Luka Milivojević

40'

Asmir Begović

41'

L. MilivojevićPenalty

44'

S. Dann↳ Y. Cabaye

45+3'

J. Defoe↳ L. Cook

65'

J. McArthur← Y. Cabaye

65'

71'

71'

78'

79'

80'

82'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalBournemouth

Overview

45%Possession55%

24Total Shots11

6Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots11

8On Target5

8Off Target3

8Blocked3

19Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

345Total Passes442

257Accurate Passes352

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3