Crystal Palace 3–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.19

Crystal Palace

1.61

Aston Villa

1.19

Crystal Palace creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

1.64

creates per match

1.14

1.24

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.64

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Aston Villa

1.58

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.58scores less

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

72%

Crystal Palace or Aston Villa

75%

Draw or Aston Villa

53%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

24%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

80%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

48%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

22%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

70%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

33%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

63%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.64 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

47%

level

25%

Aston Villa scores more

28%

Crystal Palace at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

T. Mitchell

Crystal Palace · D

8.5

Match Events

17'

J. McGinn

32'

C. Benteke↳ T. Mitchell

34'

A. El Ghazi↳ O. Watkins

50'

John McGinn

64'

J. Grealish← Bertrand Traoré

73'

Joel Ward

73'

J. Tomkins← J. McCarthy

76'

W. Zaha↳ E. Eze

82'

84'

85'

86'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalAston

Overview

45%Possession55%

23Total Shots19

7Corners7

23Fouls13

Shots

23Total Shots19

8On Target5

3Off Target8

12Blocked6

15Inside Box12

8Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

325Total Passes393

238Accurate Passes307

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

23Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

Crystal Palace beat Aston Villa 3-2 in Premier League on May 16, 2021.

Goals: J. McGinn (17'), C. Benteke (32'), A. El Ghazi (34'), W. Zaha (76'), T. Mitchell (84').

Aston Villa controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 23.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa