Crystal Palace 3–0 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arsenal

W. Zaha 74' (pen)

J. Ayew 24'

J. Mateta 16'

4/4/2022

Premier League · Round 31Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Crystal Palace34%

×Draw25%

Arsenal40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.46

Crystal Palace

1.32

Arsenal

1.46

Arsenal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.64

creates per match

1.69

1.24

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.64

Arsenal

1.69

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Arsenal

1.00

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.58scores less

Arsenal+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

60%

Crystal Palace or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

66%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

15%

Arsenal wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

73%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

38%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

15%

Arsenal 1+ goals

77%

Arsenal 2+ goals

43%

Arsenal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

46%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.64 + Arsenal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arsenal attack 1.69 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

34%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

40%

Arsenal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Andersen

Crystal Palace · D

8.3

Match Events

16'

J. Mateta↳ J. Andersen

24'

J. Ayew↳ J. Andersen

46'

Gabriel Martinelli← Nuno Tavares

53'

Thomas Partey

66'

E. Nketiah← Cédric Soares

69'

J. McArthur← J. Mateta

74'

A. Lokonga← T. Partey

74'

W. ZahaPenalty

76'

O. Édouard← J. Ayew

77'

Granit Xhaka

80'

L. Milivojević← C. Kouyaté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalArsenal

Overview

31%Possession69%

6Total Shots12

0Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots12

5On Target3

1Off Target8

0Blocked1

3Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

31%Possession69%

293Total Passes647

208Accurate Passes557

71%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4