Crystal Palace 2–3 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal

J. Tomkins 89'

A. Townsend 49'

A. Sánchez 66', 62'

S. Mustafi 25'

12/28/2017

Premier League · Round 20Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Crystal Palace33%

×Draw25%

Arsenal42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.49

Crystal Palace

1.29

Arsenal

1.49

Arsenal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 37 away

1.61

creates per match

1.71

1.27

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Arsenal

1.71

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Arsenal

0.96

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Arsenal+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

58%

Crystal Palace or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

67%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Arsenal wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

72%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

37%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

14%

Arsenal 1+ goals

77%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

44%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Arsenal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arsenal attack 1.71 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

33%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

42%

Arsenal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Sánchez

Arsenal · F

9.2

Match Events

25'

29'

45'

49'

53'

J. McArthur← Y. Cabaye

62'

A. Sánchez↳ A. Lacazette

66'

A. Sánchez↳ J. Wilshere

70'

B. Sako← R. Loftus-Cheek

75'

F. Coquelin← A. Lacazette

80'

T. Fosu-Mensah← M. Kelly

87'

A. Maitland-Niles← G. Xhaka

89'

J. Tomkins↳ A. Townsend

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalArsenal

Overview

34%Possession66%

16Total Shots16

5Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots16

2On Target9

9Off Target3

5Blocked4

10Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

336Total Passes654

249Accurate Passes553

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3