Cruz Azul 1–4 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Cruz Azul

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Á. Sepúlveda 45+2'

Nathan Silva 80'

U. Rivas 72'

C. Huerta 60', 30' (pen)

10/8/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cruz Azul43%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruz AzulExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.20

Cruz Azul

1.44

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.20

Cruz Azul creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.74

creates per match

1.21

1.19

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Cruz Azul

1.74

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

allows per match

Cruz Azul

1.19

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.14

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Cruz Azul-0.18scores less

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.43scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw

69%

Cruz Azul or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

57%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

20%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

76%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

42%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

34%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

58%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.19 · 9 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.74 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Cruz Azul defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cruz Azul scores more

43%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

31%

Cruz Azul at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

C. Huerta

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · M

8.9

Match Events

29'

I. Rivero

30'

C. HuertaPenalty

36'

42'

43'

45+2'

46'

46'

46'

58'

58'

60'

65'

65'

D. Cambindo← Á. Sepúlveda

70'

A. Ortíz← E. Salvio

70'

P. Bennevendo← P. Monroy

72'

U. Rivas↳ P. Bennevendo

80'

Nathan Silva↳ G. Fernández

81'

K. Castaño← C. Rodríguez

81'

A. Gutiérrez← C. Rotondi

82'

C. Tabó← A. Aldrete

86'

A. Morales← U. Antuna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzU.N.A.M.

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots10

13Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target6

7Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

460Total Passes302

380Accurate Passes224

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Cruz Azul 4-1 in Liga MX on October 8, 2023.

Goals: C. Huerta (30' pen, 60'), Á. Sepúlveda (45+2'), U. Rivas (72'), Nathan Silva (80').

Cruz Azul controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Azteca in D.F..

Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas