Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Cruz Azul43%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas31%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cruz Azul creates 20% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cruz Azul ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.19 · 9 matches
U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cruz Azul attack 1.74 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44
U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.21 + Cruz Azul defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Cruz Azul at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Leon
Tigres UANL
MonterreyCruz Azul
Club America
Necaxa
Pachuca
Club Tijuana
Toluca
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Lobos Buap
Atlas
Guadalajara ChivasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
Monarcas
Club Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cruz Azul host U.N.A.M. - Pumas on Sunday, 21 April 2019 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Liga MX: Cruz Azul 2–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Cruz Azul beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-1 in Liga MX on April 21, 2019.
Goals: M. Caraglio (45' pen, 55'), P. Barrera (64' pen).
Cruz Azul controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 11.
The match was played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.