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Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
3/3/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Azteca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Cruz Azul45%
×Draw26%
Guadalajara Chivas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
1.44
Guadalajara Chivas
1.08

Cruz Azul creates 33% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 146 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.66
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

Cruz Azul
0.98
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
72%
Cruz Azul or Guadalajara Chivas
74%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
55%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
22%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
76%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
42%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
18%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
66%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
29%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
62%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 159 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Cruz Azul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
45%
level
26%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
28%

Cruz Azul at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Chivas

Cruz Azul beat Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 in Liga MX on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Azteca in D.F..