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Crusaders W vs Larne W — Premiership Women 2026

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
Preview
19:00
Larne W
Larne W
9/4/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group Stage
Big match
41%
Crusaders W
model favours
41%18%40%

Both sides lean high-scoring (100% and 86% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
90%
over 2.5 goals
86%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Crusaders W41%
×Draw18%
Larne W40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
2.67
Larne W
2.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
0.89
Larne W
0.64

allows per match

Crusaders W
4.67
Larne W
4.45

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Larne W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Larne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
60%
Crusaders W or Larne W
82%
Draw or Larne W
59%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
24%
Larne W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
93%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
74%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
49%
Larne W 1+ goals
93%
Larne W 2+ goals
74%
Larne W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
50%
Larne W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 4.67 · 9 matches

Larne W away — creates 0.64, concedes 4.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 0.89 + Larne W defence 4.45 → ÷2 → 2.67

Larne W attack 0.64 + Crusaders W defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crusaders W scores more
41%
level
18%
Larne W scores more
40%

Crusaders W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crusaders W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 100% of Crusaders W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Larne W score first in only 7% of matches
  • 86% of Larne W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Crusaders W score first in only 20% of matches
  • Crusaders W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWW
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crusaders W host Larne W

September 4, 2026: Crusaders W take on Larne W in Premiership Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.