Crusaders FC 4–0 Bangor: Result & Stats

Crusaders FC

FT

4 – 0

Bangor

8/7/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Crusaders FC58%

×Draw21%

Bangor21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crusaders FCExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.20

Crusaders FC

2.10

Bangor

1.20

Crusaders FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

0.40

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Crusaders FC

2.00

Bangor

2.00

allows per match

Crusaders FC

0.40

Bangor

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crusaders FC+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders FC ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Crusaders FC or draw

79%

Crusaders FC or Bangor

79%

Draw or Bangor

42%

Winning margin

Crusaders FC wins by 2+

35%

Bangor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Crusaders FC 1+ goals

88%

Crusaders FC 2+ goals

62%

Crusaders FC 3+ goals

35%

Bangor 1+ goals

70%

Bangor 2+ goals

34%

Bangor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crusaders FC (draw refunded)

73%

Bangor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders FC attack 2.00 + Bangor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Bangor attack 2.00 + Crusaders FC defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Crusaders FC scores more

58%

level

21%

Bangor scores more

21%

Crusaders FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Crusaders FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff