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Croatia U17 vs Kosovo U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Croatia U17
Croatia U17
Preview
14:00
Kosovo U17
Kosovo U17
11/14/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
64%
Croatia U17
model favours
64%18%18%

Top-of-the-table clash — Croatia U17 1 vs Kosovo U17 3

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Croatia U1764%
×Draw18%
Kosovo U1718%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U17
2.48
Kosovo U17
1.24

Croatia U17 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Croatia U17
2.53
Kosovo U17
1.21

allows per match

Croatia U17
1.27
Kosovo U17
2.43

finishing

Croatia U17+0.00on par
Kosovo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U17 ↓

Kosovo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Croatia U17 or draw
82%
Croatia U17 or Kosovo U17
82%
Draw or Kosovo U17
36%

Winning margin

Croatia U17 wins by 2+
42%
Kosovo U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Croatia U17 1+ goals
92%
Croatia U17 2+ goals
70%
Croatia U17 3+ goals
44%
Kosovo U17 1+ goals
71%
Kosovo U17 2+ goals
35%
Kosovo U17 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Croatia U17 (draw refunded)
78%
Kosovo U17 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U17 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Kosovo U17 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U17 attack 2.53 + Kosovo U17 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.48

Kosovo U17 attack 1.21 + Croatia U17 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Croatia U17 scores more
64%
level
18%
Kosovo U17 scores more
18%

Croatia U17 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Croatia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
WWLDW
U17
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Croatia U17 host Kosovo U17

November 14, 2026: Croatia U17 take on Kosovo U17 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.