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Criciuma U20 vs Chapecoense U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Criciuma U20
Criciuma U20
Preview
14:00
Chapecoense U20
Chapecoense U20
7/19/2026Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · Round 15
Big match
56%
Criciuma U20
model favours
56%21%22%

Criciuma U20 are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Criciuma U2056%
×Draw21%
Chapecoense U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma U20
2.06
Chapecoense U20
1.23

Criciuma U20 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Criciuma U20
2.44
Chapecoense U20
1.82

allows per match

Criciuma U20
0.63
Chapecoense U20
1.68

finishing

Criciuma U20+0.00on par
Chapecoense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma U20 ↓

Chapecoense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Criciuma U20 or draw
78%
Criciuma U20 or Chapecoense U20
79%
Draw or Chapecoense U20
44%

Winning margin

Criciuma U20 wins by 2+
34%
Chapecoense U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Criciuma U20 1+ goals
87%
Criciuma U20 2+ goals
61%
Criciuma U20 3+ goals
34%
Chapecoense U20 1+ goals
71%
Chapecoense U20 2+ goals
35%
Chapecoense U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Chapecoense U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma U20 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Chapecoense U20 away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma U20 attack 2.44 + Chapecoense U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.06

Chapecoense U20 attack 1.82 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Criciuma U20 scores more
56%
level
21%
Chapecoense U20 scores more
22%

Criciuma U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Criciuma U20 score first in only 27% of matches
  • Chapecoense U20 have scored in 9 games running
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Criciuma U20 3 vs Chapecoense U20 4
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Criciuma U20’s matches
  • Criciuma U20 matches are rarely goalless — only 3.3% end 0-0
  • 34% of Chapecoense U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDWWW
U20
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Criciuma U20 host Chapecoense U20

July 19, 2026: Criciuma U20 take on Chapecoense U20 in Catarinense U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.