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Crewe vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
18:45
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
4/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Alexandra Stadium
Big match
38%
Crewe
model favours
38%24%38%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe38%
×Draw24%
Swindon Town38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.50
Swindon Town
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
62%
Crewe or Swindon Town
76%
Draw or Swindon Town
62%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
18%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
78%
Crewe 2+ goals
44%
Crewe 3+ goals
19%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
77%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
44%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crewe scores more
38%
level
24%
Swindon Town scores more
38%

Crewe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crewe score first in only 19% of matches
  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Swindon Town
Balanced
50%Possession53%
70%Pass accuracy71%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap12.6
1.44xG1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweSwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Crewe
3
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
2–10–30–00–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Crewe face Swindon Town on April 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Swindon Town at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.