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Crewe vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
J. Tabiner 86'
C. Thomas 82'
R. Hepburn-Murphy 44'
4/29/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 45Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw24%
Swindon Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.54
Swindon Town
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Swindon Town
1.22

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Swindon Town
1.56

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
65%
Crewe or Swindon Town
76%
Draw or Swindon Town
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
45%
Crewe 3+ goals
20%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
42%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
53%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
24%
Swindon Town scores more
35%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
J. TabinerCreweCrewe · M
8.0

Match Events

25'
L. Offord← C. Finney
41'
Connor O'Riordan
44'
R. Hepburn-Murphy↳ S. Khan
57'
T. Shade← R. Hepburn-Murphy
65'
Harrison Minturn
70'
Christopher Long
70'
C. Ainley← C. Baker-Richardson
71'
Z. Williams← C. ORiordan
71'
R. Darcy← G. McEachran
80'
E. Nevitt← C. Long
80'
L. Brook← R. Finnigan
81'
D. Kadji← J. Cain
81'
C. Austin← L. Jephcott
82'
C. Thomas
86'
J. Tabiner↳ C. Ainley

Possession

47%Crewe

Shots

15Crewe

Pass accuracy

49%Crewe

Statistics

CreweSwindon
Overview
47%Possession53%
15Total Shots12
3Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots12
8On Target6
5Off Target5
2Blocked1
9Inside Box4
6Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
416Total Passes471
314Accurate Passes373
75%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Crewe vs Swindon Town

Crewe beat Swindon Town 2-1 in League Two on April 29, 2023.

Goals: R. Hepburn-Murphy (44'), C. Thomas (82'), J. Tabiner (86').

Swindon Town controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.