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Crewe vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
14:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Alexandra Stadium
Big match
40%
Crewe
model favours
40%27%33%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw27%
Shrewsbury33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.35
Shrewsbury
1.19

Crewe creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Shrewsbury
1.17

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Shrewsbury-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
67%
Crewe or Shrewsbury
73%
Draw or Shrewsbury
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
70%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
55%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
27%
Shrewsbury scores more
33%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Crewe have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crewe
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession44%
70%Pass accuracy60%
11.2Shots11.5
1.44xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweShrewsbury

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

5
Crewe
2
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 43%
4–03–10–01–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Crewe face Shrewsbury on September 19, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Shrewsbury at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.