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Crewe vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
14:00
Northampton
Northampton
8/22/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Alexandra Stadium
Big match
41%
Crewe
model favours
41%26%32%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Crewe41%
×Draw26%
Northampton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.40
Northampton
1.21

Crewe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 88 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.56
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Crewe
1.18
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
68%
Crewe or Northampton
74%
Draw or Northampton
59%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
75%
Crewe 2+ goals
41%
Crewe 3+ goals
17%
Northampton 1+ goals
70%
Northampton 2+ goals
34%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
56%
Northampton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Northampton attack 1.24 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more
41%
level
26%
Northampton scores more
32%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Northampton
Balanced
50%Possession48%
70%Pass accuracyBiggest gap65%
11.4Shots11.9
1.44xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweNorthampton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Crewe
1
Draws
2
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
0–12–21–02–11–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Northampton

August 22, 2026: Crewe take on Northampton in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Northampton at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.