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Crewe vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Newport County
Newport County
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Alexandra Stadium
Big match
48%
Crewe
model favours
48%23%29%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe48%
×Draw23%
Newport County29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.83
Newport County
1.38

Crewe creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Newport County
1.11

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Newport County
2.12

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
71%
Crewe or Newport County
77%
Draw or Newport County
52%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
26%
Newport County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
84%
Crewe 2+ goals
54%
Crewe 3+ goals
28%
Newport County 1+ goals
75%
Newport County 2+ goals
40%
Newport County 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
62%
Newport County (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Newport County attack 1.11 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crewe scores more
48%
level
23%
Newport County scores more
29%

Crewe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Newport County
Balanced
50%Possession49%
70%Pass accuracy67%
11.4Shots11.6
1.44xGBiggest gap1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweNewport County

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

1
Crewe
3
Draws
5
Newport County
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 67%
0–22–20–31–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
County
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Newport County

November 14, 2026: Crewe take on Newport County in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Newport County at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.