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Crewe vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
CANC
00:00
Newport County
Newport County
4/10/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 43Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe49%
×Draw23%
Newport County28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.83
Newport County
1.34

Crewe creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Newport County
1.05

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Newport County
2.13

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Newport County-0.30scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
72%
Crewe or Newport County
77%
Draw or Newport County
51%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
27%
Newport County wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
84%
Crewe 2+ goals
54%
Crewe 3+ goals
28%
Newport County 1+ goals
74%
Newport County 2+ goals
39%
Newport County 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
63%
Newport County (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Newport County defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Newport County attack 1.05 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crewe scores more
49%
level
23%
Newport County scores more
28%

Crewe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Newport County — Match Preview

Crewe face Newport County on April 10, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Newport County at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.