Crewe 2–0 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

9/26/2020

League One · Round 3Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Crewe34%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.40

Crewe

1.28

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 95 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

1.52

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Crewe

1.17

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Crewe

1.52

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

60%

Crewe or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

66%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

15%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

72%

Crewe 2+ goals

37%

Crewe 3+ goals

14%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

75%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

46%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 46 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.17 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Crewe defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more

34%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

40%

Milton Keynes Dons at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff