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Crewe vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
J. White 85'
C. O'Riordan 30'
10/3/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw25%
Gillingham35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.53
Gillingham
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Gillingham
1.21

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Gillingham
1.53

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
65%
Crewe or Gillingham
75%
Draw or Gillingham
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Gillingham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
78%
Crewe 2+ goals
45%
Crewe 3+ goals
20%
Gillingham 1+ goals
76%
Gillingham 2+ goals
41%
Gillingham 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
53%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
25%
Gillingham scores more
35%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
H. DaviesCreweCrewe · G
7.9

Match Events

30'
C. O'Riordan↳ Z. Williams
35'
Jack Powell
46'
M. Holíček← C. Long
46'
T. Nichols← C. Alexander
64'
E. Nevitt← C. Baker-Richardson
64'
C. Finney← Z. Williams
64'
J. Williams← G. Lapslie
72'
A. Rowe← S. Tracey
73'
J. White← J. Powell
76'
A. Nadesan← D. Jefferies
85'
J. White↳ A. Rowe
86'
J. Clarke← R. McKenzie

Possession

49%Crewe

Shots

9Crewe

Pass accuracy

51%Crewe

Statistics

CreweGillingham
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots13
6Corners4
7Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots13
4On Target5
3Off Target7
2Blocked1
7Inside Box8
2Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
395Total Passes421
281Accurate Passes290
71%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

League Two: Crewe 2–0 Gillingham

Crewe beat Gillingham 2-0 in League Two on October 3, 2023.

Goals: C. O'Riordan (30'), J. White (85').

Gillingham controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.