Crewe 0–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League One

Crewe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

J. Akinde 58'

11/3/2020

League One · Round 11Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe36%

×Draw26%

Gillingham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.38

Crewe

1.32

Gillingham

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 99 away

1.26

creates per match

1.17

1.58

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

62%

Crewe or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

64%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

73%

Crewe 2+ goals

38%

Crewe 3+ goals

15%

Gillingham 1+ goals

75%

Gillingham 2+ goals

40%

Gillingham 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

48%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crewe scores more

36%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

38%

Gillingham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

P. Ng

Crewe · D

8.0

Match Events

12'

55'

58'

69'

71'

75'

76'

83'

88'

O. Zanzala← T. Lowery

90'

M. Willock← T. OConnor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweGillingham

Overview

74%Possession26%

21Total Shots7

8Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots7

4On Target3

11Off Target4

6Blocked0

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

74%Possession26%

664Total Passes224

563Accurate Passes152

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1