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Crewe vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
C. Long 89'
D. Agyei 33' (pen), 14' (pen)
4/7/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Crewe48%
×Draw24%
Barrow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.72
Barrow
1.25

Crewe creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Barrow
0.87

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Barrow
1.91

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
72%
Crewe or Barrow
76%
Draw or Barrow
52%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
26%
Barrow wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
82%
Crewe 2+ goals
51%
Crewe 3+ goals
25%
Barrow 1+ goals
71%
Barrow 2+ goals
36%
Barrow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
63%
Barrow (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.72

Barrow attack 0.87 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crewe scores more
48%
level
24%
Barrow scores more
28%

Crewe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
D. AgyeiCreweCrewe · M
9.0

Match Events

12'
George Ray
14'
D. AgyeiPenalty
33'
D. AgyeiPenalty
37'
Connor O'Riordan
43'
Tyrell Warren
45+4'
Conor Thomas
46'
H. Neal← S. Foley
46'
R. Feely← T. Warren
52'
Daniel Agyei
61'
C. Long← L. Brook
68'
J. Young← B. Whitfield
68'
E. Newby← J. Kay
72'
R. Griffiths← C. Ainley
79'
Rio Adebisi
80'
G. Garner← G. Ray
82'
E. Nevitt← C. Baker-Richardson
82'
R. McDonald← J. Tabiner
88'
Christopher Long
89'
C. Long↳ D. Agyei

Possession

43%Crewe

Shots

8Crewe

Pass accuracy

49%Crewe

Statistics

CreweBarrow
Overview
43%Possession57%
8Total Shots11
2Corners5
15Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots11
6On Target0
0Off Target7
2Blocked4
4Inside Box6
4Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
261Total Passes319
155Accurate Passes197
59%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
5Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Crewe 3 – 0 Barrow

Crewe beat Barrow 3-0 in League Two on April 7, 2023.

Goals: D. Agyei (14' pen, 33' pen), C. Long (89').

Barrow controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.